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During this Microsoft Excel 2016 advanced training tutorial video, we will cover the statistical functions for forecasting. We will show examples using the functions SLOPE and INTERCEPT, FORECAST.LINEAR, and TREND. We will also explain what are independent and dependent variables.

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Welcome back to our course on Excel 2016 Advanced.
In this section we’re going to look at functions for forecasting.

Now very often when we’re talking about forecasting we’re going to be talking about looking at what is going to happen based on what has happened so far. But also the functions that we’re going to be looking at can work in a more general sense as well. And I’m going to look at that more general sense in this first section because I want to look at a few of the most commonly used function without implying that these functions are only used in relation to things that change with time. Having said that, quite a few of the examples that we’re going to look at will involve variables that change over time.

So let’s start off in a fairly general sense. I’ve got here in columns B and C some values of two variables, X and Y. And if it helps you to think of the contents of column B as the months of the year and the contents of column C as say sales in a store of a particular object then that’s probably quite a good way of thinking of those two columns of figures.

And just to give you a good idea of what I mean by forecasting the question is this. Given those values in X and Y what value of Y would I get if X were 13? Now you might look at the figures in column C and say, “Well I don’t really know.” The values of Y tend to be going up but they don’t go up in a sort of straight and even fashion. And what we need to do is to find a function which will predict, forecast, a value of Y when X is 13.

Now there are many possibilities here and what I want to do first of all is explain what I mean by independent and dependent variables. And in this instance X is an independent variable and Y is a dependent variable. What we mean by that is that X is something that we can control or we can measure directly or we can predict absolutely. So I didn’t have any trouble putting 13 in B15 because X, the independent variable, the one that doesn’t depend on something else is clearly progressing in an even fashion. 1, 2, 3, 4, etcetera. Whereas Y is not proceeding in an even and predictable fashion.

Now there may be some dependence of Y on X and certainly it appears to be the case that as X get bigger Y gets bigger but it doesn’t necessarily mean that the increase in values of X is causing the increase in values of Y.

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