Comments on last week classes: Why do we need probabilistic calculations?. Discrete vs. continuous probability functions. Number of maximum iterations required with Montecarlo. Increasing information reduces uncertainty. Probability density function for three cases with increasing level of information available. Other parameters playing a role in the decision: “Attributes”. How to quantify these attributes. Decision tree and probability tree in NPV assessment. Cash flow in an oil company. Sources of revenue (oil gas, condensate sales, LNG, LPG, NGL), expenses: CAPEX (processing facilities, installation, equipment, manifold, pipelines), OPEX (power consumption, water disposal, injection, maintenance, modifications, salaries, export), DRILLEX, tax. Cash flow. Present value. End of year PV. Discounted clash flow. NPV. Differences between onshore and offshore projects. Deterministic but with most likely, low and high. Sensitivity Analysis with spider plot. Ceteris paribus. Gantt Chart.

pdf notes: http://www.ipt.ntnu.no/~stanko/files/Courses/TPG4230/2016/Notes/20160201.pdf
video link: http://www.ipt.ntnu.no/~stanko/files/Courses/TPG4230/2016/Videos/20160201.mp4