This is the 10th week lecture given for the Judgment and Decision Making (PSYC2071) course at University of Hong Kong on November 5, 2020.

Slides: https://osf.io/mx35u/
Course materials: https://osf.io/d2j39/
Course syllabus: https://mgto.org/hku2020psyc2071
Course summary: https://mgto.org/psyc20712020coursesummary
Course videos: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLRAF6P3W1K4eEVrDK4oI5v9ShY6Kj1w5w

Given by Gilad Feldman
Website: http://giladfeldman.org
Twitter: @giladfeldman https://twitter.com/giladfeldman
Workshops on open-science: http://mgto.org/workshops/
Open teaching materials: http://mgto.org/teaching-courses/

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Food changes during a date: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hkEMkgVI3y4
Invisible Gorilla reloaded: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IGQmdoK_ZfY
Change blindness: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cW8UiTQtiwA
Door swap: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pqgwZEdoH5w

Tali Sharot on optimism bias: https://youtu.be/B8rmi95pYL0?

Brain Games overconfidence: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GZmedqB4P1s

Hidden Brain podcast: https://www.npr.org/series/423302056/hidden-brain
Episode about superforecasting: https://www.npr.org/transcripts/534120962

Daniel Kahneman on overconfidence: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tyDQFmA1SpU

Prospect theory in a minute: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sM91d5I36Po
Dan Ariely on reference points and health, interview with London Real: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RLh9PgKl1vU

Udayan Roy's slides on hedonic adaptation:
http://myweb.liu.edu/~uroy/eco23psy284/

Experiencing self vs Remembering self by Daniel Kahneman: https://youtu.be/XgRlrBl-7Yg

Real-life implications, the personal story of Dan Ariely: https://youtu.be/_K0m3Bq-L5Y

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Our replications discussed:
Unrealistic optimism - Weinstein, 1980
Unrealistic optimism - Weinstein, 1984
Self-other perceived vulnerability to Victimization - Perloff & Fetzer, 1986
Overconfidence - Fischhoff, Slovic, & Lichtenstein, 1977
Goals as reference point - Heath, Larrick, & Wu, 1999